Dunning-Kruger Effect

Activate when: someone says 'how hard could it be' about an unfamiliar domain; a novice dismisses expert opinion or says 'I could do that'; someone's self-assessed confidence seems disconnected from their actual track record; a hiring or promotion decision is driven by self-presentation; feedback loops are absent and someone is operating on gut confidence alone. Do NOT activate when: the person is a known expert with an established external track record; the confidence claim is in a domain with tight, recent feedback loops that already calibrate performance. More: deciqai.com/c/dunning-kruger